Cards could be insane if they miss out on Molina

BY David Villavicencio

Albert Einstein defined insanity as "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

Hopefully Bill DeWitt, John Mozeliak and St. Louis Cardinals have heard this quote before or they might be destined for a padded room in their future. 


It is no secret by now that the Cardinals botched their negotiations with prized free agent and superstar Albert Pujols. They low-balled him far too long and ultimately made him feel disrespected.


By the time they came up with an offer that Pujols would have deemed acceptable, the star had set his sights elsewhere and decided to join the Angels. 


Reports later surfaced that Pujols was put off by how the Cardinals treated him in their negotiations prior to Spring Training last year. He felt disrespected and had all but decided to go elsewhere when his contract expired at the end of the 2011 season.


Sure, Pujols is older and the contract he signed with the Angels will ultimately have more bad years than good ones. It was tough to hand someone such a franchise-restricting contract, even if he is the greatest player that franchise has had in decades and the best player in baseball at the moment. 


The Cardinals may have ultimately lucked out by not re-signing Pujols but it was clear the way they handled themselves in the negotiations played a huge factor in losing their biggest star.


Fast forward to present day and you will find the Cardinals in the midst of another negotiation with a soon-to-be free agent. 

Yadier Molina is set to hit the open market at the end of the season and the four-time All-Star catcher is sure to have plenty of potential suitors should he become available to the other 29 big league teams.


Who wouldn't be interested in a player that is regarded as the best defensive catcher in the game. Molina completely shuts down the opponent's running game with his cat-like reflexes and rocket arm. A four-time Gold Glove recipient, Molina is also known to call an excellent game and respected by his teammates as a leader in the clubhouse.


But those are just his defensive accolades. Molina can hit too.


The 29-year-old has come a long way offensively. When he first came up, Molina was an offensive liability. But hard work and development have turned him into one of the better hitting catchers in baseball. He has hit over .300 twice and over .290 in three of the past four seasons. 

Molina homers to win 2006 NLCS

Molina has shown steady improvement offensively and is coming off his best season at the plate. In 2011, Molina hit .305 with 32 doubles, 14 home runs and 65 runs-batted-in. All four of those numbers are career-highs.


Yadi is also a "clutch" hitter. I hate to use that term but Molina does seem to rise to the occasion. He is a career .309 hitter in the postseason and played a key role in both the 2006 and 2011 postseasons that ended in Cardinals championships. 


Clearly, Molina has a lot going for him as a potential free agent and that also gives him a lot of leverage in negotiations. He has already said he would not give the Cardinals a hometown discount and really has no need to do so. 

He will be likely be the best free agent catcher available in free agency unless the Braves shock the world and decide to decline Brian McCann's option for the 2013 season. Other notable free agent backstops include Ryan Doumit, Russell Martin, Miguel Montero, Mike Napoli, A.J. Pierzynski and Yorvit Torrealba. Joining McCann in the group with pending options are Rod Barajas, Henry Blanco, Chris Iannetta, Miguel Olivo and Carlos Ruiz.


That is a lot of catching options that could be available at the end of the year. The Cardinals might look at that list and say, "We will be alright with any of those guys." But think logically and the list doesn't look as appealing to them.

Atlanta is probably going to pick up McCann's $12 million option or extend him. 

The Diamondbacks will surely want to bring back Montero. He would be 29 on Opening Day 2013 and can really hit. That seems like a no-brainer. 

The Rangers will likely want to bring Napoli back after the huge year he had in 2011. If he can repeat his offensive success, he will be very expensive in free agency. However, the likelihood of that is slim as Napoli never hit better than .273 before posting a .320 average last season. Even if he does hit again, he does not compare to Molina defensively and would cost as much, if not more, than Molina.


The rest of the group is not very exciting. 

Barajas, Blanco, Olivo, Pierzynski, Ruiz and Torrealba will all be 34 or older on Opening Day 2013. For most of those guys, their best days are clearly behind them.

Doumit cannot defend the catcher position full-time and has had a slew of injuries and inconsistent performance. 

Iannetta has never lived up to his promise and might be destined for reserve duty if he doesn't pick it up offensively soon.


Martin, like Molina, will be 30 on Opening Day 2013. He is a clear downgrade from Yadi, both offensively and defensively, and would not be the greatest consolation prize should the Redbirds end up with him as Molina's replacement. Also, it seems unlikely that he will hit free agency as he is in discussions with the Yankees about a three-year extension.


What our very brief look at the other free agent catchers proves is that the Cardinals will likely end up with a major downgrade behind the plate if they cannot come to terms with Molina. 


Add to that the fact that they do not have any everyday catchers close to the big leagues (no disrespect to Tony Cruz, Bryan Anderson and Koyie Hill) and you find that St. Louis really needs to get a deal with Molina done.


But you might be asking yourselves about other potential free agents the Cardinals will need to replace.


Beyond Molina, the Cardinals have just four players set to be come free agents at the end of the year.


Lance Berkman will be a free agent at the end of the year but he may be easily replaced. The Cards already have Allen Craig in the fold. Prospect Matt Adams is expected to be ready by 2013. Mark Hamilton, who has had success in the minors but has not hit much in two big league callups is also waiting for a chance. 

The Cardinals also have a pair of talented third baseman in the minors in Zack Cox and Matt Carpenter. If either proves ready for the big leagues, the Cards could consider shifting David Freese across the diamond and fill the void that way. 


Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook are both set to become free agents at the end of the year and that might be addition by subtraction. While Lohse and Westbrook are serviceable, bottom of the rotation arms, they will combine to make over $20 million in 2012. That is a lot of money to pay for your fourth and fifth starters. 

Combine that with the likelihood that top prospect Shelby Miller will be more than ready for the big leagues by 2013 and you have already replaced one starter with someone who many expect to be much better and still have about $19.5 million unspent.


Add in Lance Lynn, Carlos Martinez, Jordan Swagerty and Brandon Dickson and you have plenty of good, young talent to fill the other spot and still have $19 million to spend on Molina and the rest of your roster.


The final free agent in J.C. Romero and he is highly replaceable. It seems like every year, lefty specialists are wearing a different uniform so finding a new one would not be difficult. Internal options are available as well with prospect John Gast ready and waiting for an opportunity. Gast could also factor in as a starter if the Cardinals wanted to use him that way.


So it seems obvious that the Cardinals will have money at their disposal to re-sign Molina. It also seems like they will be able to upgrade internally to replace their departing free agents. 

Will Molina be wearing a different cap a year from now too?

Now it's just a matter of how they choose to handle the negotiations with Molina. Will they toy with these negotiations like they did with Pujols or be aggressive and try to get a deal done? Could a low-ball offer ultimately push Molina away from St. Louis like it did with Albert? 


No one knows for sure but it is clear that they had one type of outcome already with their dillydallying negotiations. Do they think things will end differently this time?


I guess it's a matter of sanity.

Marlins Caravan stops for a little golf

BY David Villavicencio

The Marlins took time to help a great cause today by hosting the Marlins Celebrity Golf Classic at Miccosukee Golf and Country Club in Miami. All proceeds from the tournament will benefit the Miracle League of Miami-Dade County.

It was the tenth consecutive year that Marlins players, front office executives and local sports personalities will tee it up in support of the Miracle League of Miami-Dade County.

The Miracle League of Miami-Dade provides the opportunity for children with mental and/or physical challenges to play baseball on special custom designed rubber turf fields for their protection and accommodations for wheelchairs and walkers.

Beyond helping out a worthy cause, the tournament provided opportunities to see the players up close. It also gave newcomers like Mark Buehrle, Jose Reyes, Heath Bell and Carlos Zambrano a chance to get to know some of their new teammates.

Speaking of Zambrano, I spoke with Big Z about what it felt like to be a Marlin and he could not be happier. The 6-foot-5 right-hander is thrilled for his new opportunity and cannot wait to get the season started. Read more on Zambrano here.

Anibal Sanchez is another player I had the chance to talk to. Fresh off his win in arbitration, Sanchez is excited for what he expects to be a big 2012 season. He will play on a one-year deal in his final season under team control and the Marlins have said they are not interested in offering him an extension at this time.

Always a pro, Sanchez is not letting his contract status get in the way of his preparation. Read more on Sanchez here.

Like most of the Marlins, Sanchez appears to be in excellent shape heading into camp. Edward Mujica is another player who is in good form. Mujica appears to have lost some weight in the off-season as he prepares for his second year as a Marlin.

Hanley Ramirez also is looking as strong as ever. The former batting champ appears to have bulked up a bit before he makes the transition to third base. Ramirez declined to talk to the media but new shortstop Jose Reyes said he is excited about the potential the left side of the Marlins' infield possesses.

You can see some pictures from today's event on my colleague, Joe Capozzi's blog.  New Closer Heath Bell's outfit was a hit. Mujica said that two years ago, Bell wore a similar outfit to a Padres golf tournament only it was black and yellow and made Bell looks like a bumble bee. This year's bright green ensemble brought back memories of the late Payne Stewart.

Stay tuned for more Marlins coverage from me as Spring Training gets going. The Fish will report on February 22 and start playing games on March 5.

Is missing out on Cespedes really a bad thing for the Marlins?

BY David Villavicencio

By now you've heard the news. Yoenis Cespedes agreed to terms on a four-year, $36 million contract with the Oakland Athletics.

Judging by the response from Marlins fans on Twitter, you are probably still up in arms about this news as you read this sentence.

Understandably so, you are frustrated that one of the hottest names of the winter will be playing elsewhere this summer. It probably irks you even more that that Marlins have been linked to Cespedes since his ridiculous workout video was posted on Youtube months ago.

You had him penciled in your Opening Day lineup, playing center field and hitting right behind Mike Stanton. Visions of prodigious power numbers and a potential run at the Phillies filled your head for months.

Now your mind is filled with curse words and frustration as Cespedes will suit up for the lowly Athletics instead of your beloved Marlins.

Well let me put your mind at ease for a bit.

It's not the end of the world.

The Marlins will still be a competitive team in 2012.

Missing out on Cespedes might actually be a good thing.

Wait a minute, what?!

Did he just say missing out on a guy who runs shirtless behind a car in the Dominican Republic, can leg press a small country and hits batting practice home runs so impressive that they look like any other big leaguer's BP home runs was a good thing?

This Villavicencio guy has lost his mind!

Before you call the people running the looney bin, give me a minute and hear me out.

Cespedes is a relative unknown. What I mean by that is there is not much to go off to evaluate him. He hasn't played against top competition very much and has seen his star rise while dominating in his native Cuba.

I know Cuba has a reputation of playing high quality baseball but the truth is he is playing in a league that most baseball people consider equivalent to A-ball here in the minor leagues. That is a long, long LONG way from the big leagues in terms of competition.

His unknown status is increased by the fact that he is Cuban so he is secluded on an island that people cannot readily scout. Big league teams have academies and scouts in Dominican Republic and Venezuela and they also scour Puerto Rico looking for top talent year-round. But they cannot do that in Cuba and really have no incentive to do so because they can't sign anyone from Cuba until they defect.

This does not mean that big league teams are out of the loop when it comes to Cuban players but they definitely do not have as much information and visual scouting time on those players than they would on guys who come from other Latin American countries.

When a team signs a kid out of Venezuela or the Dominican Republic, they have typically spent a ton of time scouting him, evaluating him and trying to project what he can ultimately become as a ballplayer. There are no guarantees that the kid fulfills those projections but they can at least take an educated guess at what they are getting when they invest money and resources into the player.

With Cespedes, they have what they have seen in international competitions such as the World Baseball Classic, a workout held in the Dominican Republic, a small sample size in Winter Ball this year and that ridiculous video. Let's break these down one at a time.

International tournaments are an interesting place to evaluate talent because you get the opportunity to see people against different levels of competition. In Cespedes' case, you can see him go against some of the best baseball talent in the world. An opportunity to see him against players from the United States, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Puerto Rico and Japan would be great because we can see how he handles tougher competition.

Cespedes excelled in the 2009 WBC, hitting .458 with a double, three triples, and two home runs. He posted an impressive 1.480 OPS while helping Cuba advance to the second round of the tournament.

You look at those numbers and you have to be salivating because he absolutely crushed top international competition. But if you look closer, you'll see he didn't face very good competition at all.

Cespedes and his Cuban teammates played in Pool B with Mexico, Australia and South Africa. Those are not three hot beds of baseball talent. Delve deeper into his experience in Pool B and you'll find the closest thing he faced to a big league pitcher was Australia's Damian Moss. The lefty pitched for the Braves, Giants, Orioles and Devil Rays in his career but was five years removed from his final big league appearance when he gave up a homer to Cespedes in the WBC.

But then came the playoffs. Cespedes went 2-for-4 against Japan. Daisuke Matsuzaka started that game and Hisashi Iwakuma also pitched in it. That's two big league pitchers. I can't find if he got a hit off of either pitcher but that is just one game and it is too small of a sample to take positively or negatively. For the sake of this argument, let's say it was a good sign to see a good game against Japan.

In his next game he tripled off of Mexico's Francisco Rodriguez. Not K-Rod but this guy. Still, Cespedes had success against a guy who is now a big leaguer. Another positive.

In his final game in the 2009 WBC, Cespedes tripled off of Iwakuma. If you don't recognize the name, you will when you watch him pitch this year for the Mariners. Iwakuma failed to agree to terms with Oakland last winter so he returned to Japan before signing with Seattle this off-season. He is expected to be an impact Japanese import for the Mariners.

So Cespedes got a grand total of four hits off of Major League talent in the 2009 WBC. I know it is a very small sample size but that kind of makes those gaudy numbers look a little less impressive doesn't it?

Next on the list are his workouts in the Dominican Republic. These were open to any big league team interested in taking a look at what Cespedes was about. Obviously I didn't attend the workouts but I know that any workout is meant to showcase a player. They put Cespedes in the best position to succeed and showcase his strengths as a player.

To give you a comparison, I present JaMarcus Russell and his pro day workout at LSU. We all know Russell was a colossal bust in the NFL but he looked all-world in his pro day. They showcased his incredible arm strength and had him throw familiar routes to familiar receivers. He was put in a situation that made him look like a lock to be a future star.

You have to believe Cespedes' agent, Adam Katz, and his adviser, Edgar Mercedes, did the same for their client in his workouts. They showcased him as a physical specimen, hitting batting practice home runs of epic proportions and running like a world class sprinter. You're supposed to look good in a workout. Cespedes did that. But that doesn't mean he will become a good big leaguer.

Now let's briefly examine his experience in the Dominican Winter League. The DWL is a competitive winter league that is full of big leaguers and guys close to the big leagues. It is definitely viewed as a higher level of competition than the Cuban League Cespedes dominated.

Only this time, Cespedes was getting dominated instead of dominating. It was just 10 games but Cespedes looked terrible. He went 5-for-35 with one home run and 10 strikeouts. That is a putrid performance to say the least.

Is it indicative of future failure? Not necessarily.

Cespedes had not played in competitive games for a long time so rust was certainly a factor but he did look lost at the plate. He struggled to hit breaking pitches and had a very long swing. Could that be a result of being rusty? Maybe but that is the same long swing you saw in the WBC and in his video. Seems to me like the long swing is the actual swing. Can that be corrected? Probably but you don't know for sure and you don't know if he will be the same power hitter if he does correct his flaws. That should definitely be a concern.

Finally, we have his scouting video. This might be the least informative 20 minutes you could find on Cespedes. You don't learn much that is actually useful from this video.

He hits a ton of batting practice home runs. Fantastic! Every big leaguer does that. Even guys like Emilio Bonifacio can hit homers on every pitch in batting practice if they wanted to. In fact, Ichiro has a reputation of being one of the most impressive hitters in batting practice in terms of home run length and you never see him do that in a game.

He runs really fast shirtless behind a car. Outstanding! Glad to know he would have no trouble running on South Beach on his weekends off.

He leg presses every weight in the Dominican Republic and then a few Dominicans themselves. Great! Nice to know he can pinch hit for my jack if I ever get a flat tire.

You barely see him do any defensive work and when you do see him play the outfield, he is messing around and catching balls behind his back. You never see his form or his range. That is something that you'd like to see from someone who is a potential center fielder. If his range is limited, he is not as valuable because he won't be able to play center field. You also never see him throw. Kind of important for an outfielder who is supposed to have a strong and accurate arm.

The video did a great job of making Cespedes an internet sensation but did little to make him seem like a potential big league star. It hardly answered any questions surrounding his potential for success in the Majors.

Speaking of potential success in the Majors, scouts aren't sure what to make of it.

Having spent three years covering Major League Baseball, I have been fortunate enough to get to know a bunch of scouts around the league and they are all split on Cespedes.

They all see potential for stardom but they also see plenty of bust in Cespedes. They see the holes in the swing and the long swing. They question whether he can truly play center field. They wonder if he will develop into a true impact bat or if he will be a third or fourth outfielder. The scouts have a lot of questions and they see a lot of flaws in Cespedes' game.

Will Cespedes play in the Majors? Absolutely.

Will he live up to the hype and now the contract that came with it? Probably not.

Most baseball people I have spoken to have Cespedes pegged to be a .250-.270 hitter that will hit 20-25 homers and strike out a lot. A bunch of baseball people are confident he will not be able to defend in center field and will ultimately end up playing in one of the corners.

It was those opinions coming from highly knowledgeable baseball men that first got me thinking that signing Cespedes would not be a wise investment.

As I considered their opinions and gathered more information, I began to form my own opinion of Cespedes. It seemed clear that he was far more likely to be the next Hideki Irabu, Kei Igawa, Hee Seop Choi or Kenji Johjima than the next Ichiro, Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez or Kendry Morales.

It appears that the success rate for these big name international free agents is not nearly as high as you'd like it to be. Even if Cespedes became a solid big leaguer like Livan Hernandez or Jose Contreras, that would be a disappointment because you expected so much more from him. You had built up this larger than life image of him and were not going to be satisfied until he became a potential MVP candidate.

Ultimately, I became convinced that signing Cespedes was going to cost too much for what the reasonable expected return would be. He simply would not live up to the hype and would never be that major impact bat that teams are always looking for.

Despite spending all of this time mentioning the issues with Cespedes, I want to be clear. I am not bashing him nor do I have anything against him. I am happy that he was able to sign a lucrative contract and I hope he proves me and all the others who question if he will ever be a true star wrong. I just am not confident that he will be able to do so.

But I'll tell you one thing that I am confident about.

I am confident that the Marlins may have just dodged a $36 million bullet.

Former Marlin suspended for PEDs

BY David Villavicencio

A failed test for performance-enhancing drugs carries the same penalty whether you fail for one PED or multiple.

Dustin Richardson must have known this because the former Marlins reliever was suspended 50 games for taking performance-enhancing drugs.

Typically, you hear of a player failing for one PED. Sometimes he takes two substances, usually an amphetamine and something else. Richardson failed for five.

The left-hander's test results showed he had tested positive for an amphetamine, Letrozole and metabolite, Methandienone metabolite, Methenelone and metabolite, and Trenbolone and metabolite.

Richardson did not pitch in the Majors last year. He compiled a 4.79 ERA over 62 innings while spending time with the Marlins and Braves Triple-A clubs in 2011. The left-hander has thrown just 16 1/3 big league innings in his career.

Acquired by the Marlins via trade in January 2011, Richardson was the alternative to letting Andrew Miller go for nothing. After the Marlins designated him for assignment in June 2011, it seems like a box of baseballs would have been more useful.

He was picked up by the Braves and finished the season at Triple-A Gwinnett, posting a 6.00 ERA over 30 innings. Atlanta released him earlier this month, making him a free agent.

Richardson's underwhelming numbers and unimpressive stuff were going to make it difficult for him to find work this off-season. A 28-year-old with his attributes is nothing more than organizational depth.

Now that he has a 50-game suspension attached to him, it should only be more difficult as he cannot serve his purpose as a minor league roster filler.

Richardson cannot begin serving his suspension until he signs with a big league team. At this point, it may never happen but that failed PED test is one of the more memorable ways to round out a career.

Marlins add Carlos Zambrano

By David Villavicencio

The Marlins have been in search of a starting pitching upgrade since the final out of the 2011 season was recorded.

They got a big upgrade when they signed Mark Buehrle and now have added an interesting arm in Carlos Zambrano.

Miami did not have to give up much to acquire the three-time All-Star. The Marlins sent young but inconsistent right-hander, Chris Volstad to the Cubs for Big Z and $15 million. The Fish will have to pay the remaining $3 million left on Zambrano's contract this season.

Zambrano was one of the top pitchers in the National League just a few years ago. He finished in the top 5 in the NL Cy Young Award voting in 2004, 2006 and 2007. He won 10 or more games every year from 2003 thru 2008 and led the league in wins in 2006 with 16.

Despite his high walk totals, Zambrano managed to escape any potential damage for most of his career. He's posted an ERA of 3.95 or lower every season from 2001 thru 2010. His career-best ERA of 2.75 was fourth-best in the NL in 2004.

But things have changed for Zambrano in recent years and he became more well known for his violent temper and than his pitching accolades. The right-hander really struggled in 2011, posting a career-worst 4.82 ERA. His nine wins, 101 strikeouts and 145 2/3 innings pitched were all nearly career-lows as well.

To make matters worse, Zambrano quit on his team after getting tattooed by the Braves for eight runs over 4 1/3 innings on August 12. The big right-hander cleaned out his locker and announced he was retiring after that start. When he thought better of it, he said he wanted to return but the Cubs would not have him back. Chicago decided they were better off without the volatile starter and their relationship was irreparable.

Even with a new regime in place led by former Red Sox GM Theo Epstein, Zambrano appeared destined for a trade this off-season and the Marlins were immediately linked to the right-hander thanks to their new manager, Ozzie Guillen. The two Venezuelans have reportedly been friends for many years and Guillen even hinted at interest in his fellow countryman since being hired as the Marlins skipper. With Miami starved for pitching upgrades and the Cubs anxious to dump Zambrano's problems on someone else, a trade between the two clubs seemed natural.

The acquisition of Zambrano is an interesting one. On the surface it appears to be low-risk/high-reward with the Marlins hoping Zambrano can return to form in a contract year. They also gave up a player in Volstad that had not lived up to expectations over the years. The former first-rounder appeared to regress after an impressive debut in 2008.

At just 21, Volstad went 6-4 with a 2.88 ERA over 14 starts. Many expected him to continue to develop into a top pitching talent but it just never happened for him. He struggled mightily over his next three years and was demoted multiple times to the minors to try and fix his problems. Upon returning to the Majors, Volstad would show flashes of promise before reverting to the inconsistencies that caused him to fail.

Volstad is still young (25) and may benefit from a change of scenery and new philosophy. One thing is for sure, he better learn to keep the ball down now. The right-hander surrendered 70 home runs over the last three seasons. A smaller ballpark like Wrigley Field is not going to help him keep the ball out of the stands.

Losing Volstad is not a big deal for the Marlins as they have multiple pitchers who can fill the fifth starter role he was penciled into. But Volstad was a guy who got along well with his teammates and generally was a good fit in the clubhouse.

Zambrano has been a polarizing figure over the years. While some say he gets along well with his teammates, he has been portrayed as a cancer in Chicago for years. That may be more media fabrication than fact but it is obvious that he has had several run-ins with teammates in the past.

The presence of Guillen is expected to be good for Zambrano as the two are believed to have a lot of respect for each other and many believe Guillen will ultimately keep Zambrano in line.

While that may be the case, there is also the chance that the two highly volatile personalities can clash and ultimately do more harm than good to the young and emerging Marlins. What will actually happen remains to be seen but it will definitely be interesting to follow that dynamic in 2012.

Buehrle adds consistency to Marlins rotation

BY David Villavicencio

The most active team at the Winter Meetings landed another big name today as the Marlins came to terms with free agent pitcher Mark Buehrle on a four-year contract worth $58 million.

The left-hander provides an immediate upgrade to a Marlins starting rotation that is headlined by ace right-hander, Josh Johnson. Buehrle was arguably the second best free agent pitcher on the market this winter behind C.C. Sabathia.

Buehrle had no shortage of potential suitors but ultimately settled on joining Heath Bell and Jose Reyes as the newest Miami Marlins. The veteran lefty also joins his old manager, Ozzie Guillen, in Miami.

“This kid is special,” Guillen told reporters in Dallas. “Very happy to have this kid. One of my favorite players.”

Buehrle has been the definition of consistency over his career and that is something the Marlins clearly value. Johnson, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez have all had injury issues and periods of inconsistency in their young careers. The addition of Buehrle provides the Marlins with someone they can count on to take the ball every fifth day and pitch quality baseball.

Looking at Buehrle’s numbers, it is easy to see why he is considered one of the most consistent pitchers in the game today. Over his 12-year career, Buehrle has gone 161-119 with a 3.83 ERA.

Delve deeper and you will find that Buehrle has won 10 or more games in each of his 11 full seasons in the big leagues. He has made 30 or more starts and thrown over 200 innings every year since 2001. Buehrle has also thrown two no-hitters, including a perfect game in 2009.

Are there concerns about Buehrle’s age?

Possibly, but the Marlins believe he is the type of pitcher whose track record shows he can be counted on.

Giving this deal to a power pitcher at the same stage of his career as Buehrle would be far more questionable because that type of pitcher relies on his big arm to succeed and that big arm typically starts to fade with age.

But Buehrle’s success is centered on command and mixing up pitches so he should be effective as he ages as long as his command stays sharp.

The Marlins active winter is not expected to end with Buehrle’s acquisition. The team is still looking at several free agents including C.J. Wilson and could still make trades to improve their club as well.

Marlins agree to terms with Heath Bell

BY David Villavicencio

The Miami Marlins have landed their first marquee free agent.

According to Jayson Stark, the Marlins agreed to a three-year deal worth $27 million with closer Heath Bell. Ken Rosenthal reports there is a vesting option for a fourth year worth $9 million. The three-time All-Star is expected to take a physical Friday.

Bell was considered one of the top free agent closers available this off-season after saving over 40 games in each of the past three seasons with the Padres. The right-hander went 3-4 with a 2.44 ERA while saving 43 games and striking out 51 over 62 2/3 innings in 2011.

On the surface, the Bell signing seems like a good one. It fills a need and appears to be a major upgrade over Juan Carlos Oviedo. But if you look deeper you will find a lot of concerns with the Marlins newest addition.

Age: Bell Just turned 34 at the conclusion of this season. This new contract has the Marlins on the hook for $9 million a year until Bell is 37. That is typically not the prime years of any player’s career. Mariano Rivera is the rare exception of a closer pitching at an elite level so late in his career and he is the best closer in the history of the game. Heath Bell is not on that level.

Ballpark: Bell found success in San Diego’s spacious PETCO Park.  Before heading west, he was a pretty bad reliever with the Mets, posting ERAs of 5.59 and 5.11 in 2005 and 2006, respectively.

It seemed like everything turned around for Bell when he joined the Padres. He never posted an ERA higher than 3.58 in his five years there and has and ERA below 3.00 in four of his five seasons in San Diego. There is no telling how the new Marlins ballpark will play but it certainly will not be as pitcher-friendly as PETCO Park.

Budgeting: The Marlins are committed to increasing payroll and building a better ballclub but is this the best way to spend their funds? Coming into the off-season, the Marlins had needs in the starting rotation and question marks surrounding third base, center field, closer and their bench.

Adding Bell solidifies the closer spot but is adding a top closer the main priority for the Marlins? The team had hovered around .500 from 2008-2010 before their disastrous showing in 2011. Most people know the Marlins are not as bad as their 2011 record but they are not more than a .500 team either. As a team with so many needs to address, it may not be wise to allocate so much money to a player whose main job is to close out wins. If you were a team like the Cardinals, I could understand the move because they have deep starting pitching, a potent lineup and an unreliable closer but the Marlins have issues that need addressing throughout the roster. With a free agent market flooded with potential closers, they may have been better off signing someone else for a few million less annually and using the money they saved to improve some of their other holes.

Diminishing statistics/performance: Bell’s numbers have dropped of dramatically lately. He struck out just 51 batters last season after striking out 86 the year before. Bell had struck out 70 or more batters every year since 2007 before last year. The major drop is strikeouts is a big concern. Closers that need to pitch to contact are only as good as their defense. They’re also not worth a huge payday because they are not the type of pitcher to come in and shut down an offense by themselves.

In fact, check out some alarming numbers from Bell’s 2011 campaign

-        He saw his strikeout rate decline to a career worst 7.32 K/9 (11.06 K.9 in 2010) His strikeout decline was not an aberration, as his swinging strike rate decreased from 10.6 per nine innings in 2010 to 8.3 per nine innings this past season.

-        His dramatic drop in strikeouts did not come from a decrease in velocity. His average fastball speed of 94 miles per hour in 2011 was identical to 2010. It actually can be attributed to an inability to get opposing hitters to swing and miss at his curveball. He had a swinging strike rate of 18.2 percent with the pitch in 2010 compared to a 10.3 percent rate in 2011.

-        His 2.44 ERA last season was helped by his .261 BABIP, which was extremely low, especially considering his 21.3 percent line drive rate. Additionally, he has been able to keep his home run rate down, helped by the fact he has pitched in PETCO Park for the last five seasons.

Marlins fans will argue that they have had enough of Juan Carlos Oviedo and his 25 career blown saves and that is understandable. But Bell has actually blown 26 saves in his career so it is not like they are picking up someone who will be lights out when he enters a game in the ninth inning.

Adding Bell does a lot for the Marlins. It brings in an established closer with a track record of success and adds a marquee name in an off-season focused on making significant improvements to the roster.

But Bell’s signing does not come without some big concerns. The Marlins and their fans may not know it yet but they could be regretting this contract a year from now.

Potential trade could bolster Marlins rotation

BY David Villavicencio

The Marlins are on the verge of upgrading their starting rotation.

A source close to Gio Gonzalez reports the Miami native could be joining his hometown team soon.

The 26-year-old is coming off the best season of his young career. Gonzalez won 16 games and struck out 197 batters while posting a 3 .12 ERA and representing the Oakland A’s in the All-Star Game. He has won 31 games and struck out 368 over the past two seasons with Oakland.

Gonzalez would be interested in joining his hometown team if a trade can be agreed on between Oakland and the Marlins. The left-hander is hoping for an extension should he get moved to another team and the Marlins appear to be interested. He will not become a free agent until 2016.

Upgrading their rotation is a priority for the Marlins and they have been connected to several pitchers this off-season. The Marlins hosted free agent Mark Buehrle last week and have been rumored to have interest in Gonzalez and Tampa Bay’s James Shields.

Adding Gonzalez would give the Marlins a formidable duo at the top of their rotation. Ace right-hander Josh Johnson and Gonzalez would form a tandem that would rank behind only Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain and Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter in the National League.

But adding a player like Gonzalez comes at a price. The lefty is young, performing at a very high level, affordable and under team control through 2015. A’s general manager Billy Beane could expect to get a nice package in return for the left-hander. He is also certain to receive plenty of calls from fellow GMs should word get out that Oakland is actively looking to move him.

The source says three different players have been discussed as potential pieces for the deal. All three players played significant time with the Marlins last season. It is unlikely that all three would be involved in the deal.

Marlins unveil new "Miami chic" look

BY David Villavicencio

The Florida Marlins are history.

Team owner Jeffrey Loria officially announced his ballclub’s rebirth as the Miami Marlins last night and I was on hand to cover it.

The Marlins put together a first class event to launch their new era that the 500 VIPs in attendance will never forget.

Along with a performance by Miami’s own, Pitbull, the Marlins unveiled their new logo, had the team’s biggest names modeling the new uniforms and hosted a big party that showcased all of Miami’s flavor and energy. Check out my story that I wrote for Marlins.com for more on how the team kicked off the Miami Marlins era with a bang. 

Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson and Omar Infante show off the team's new look

Marlins free agent targets are not perfect

BY David Villavicencio 


The Marlins are currently one of the most active teams in MLB free agency and that is expected to continue throughout the winter. 

The Fish have already hosted Mark Buehrle and are hosting Jose Reyes today. Marlins executives will travel to the Dominican Republic tomorrow to see star Cuban defector, Yoenis Cespedes. 

The Marlins are also looking at Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and a host of other big name free agents. Fans are excited about all the big names associated with their team and are anxious to see who ultimately signs with the soon to be Miami Marlins.

But most of these fans are so excited about potentially signing a group of superstars that they have overlooked the risks associated with each player. This post will help bring some of those concerns to light.

Jose Reyes

Reyes is just 28 and a dynamic player that can instantly bolster the top of someone's lineup. But at just 28, he has already developed a history of leg problems. That is not a good sign for a player whose value comes largely from his legs. Everyone knows about Reyes' speed but leg problems also will limit his range defensively and his power at the plate. The Marlins are rumored to have offered Reyes a three-year contract worth $60 million. That would not be a bad deal for the team as Reyes would be 31 when it ends and likely starting his decline as a player. However, Reyes is probably looking for a contract that is at least five years in length. That is something that a team may ultimately regret giving him given his injury history.

Mark Buehrle

Buehrle is arguably the second-best free agent pitcher available this off-season and it is with good reason. The 32-year-old has been consistently productive, winning at least 10 games while making at least 30 starts every year since 2001. A move to the more pitcher friendly NL should benefit the four-time All-Star. Buehrle would be an excellent addition to the Marlins rotation but he is a hot commodity. Buehrle could command a four-year deal worth $15 million a year. That is concerning as he will be 33 at the start of the upcoming season and would be 37 in the final year of that deal. Committing that much money to an older pitcher over that many years is concerning but Buehrle is probably the safest bet of all the Marlins' potential signings.

Albert Pujols

Pujols is the biggest free agent available and the best player in the game today. There is no need to list his accolades because everyone in America knows how complete of a player he is. The 31-year-old would instantly upgrade the Marlins lineup, defense and clubhouse. But signing Pujols will not be easy as he is looking for a huge contract. I get the feeling it would take a substantial overbid to get him to leave St. Louis and that is something that could cripple the Marlins in the long run. Pujols is likely to be a great player for many years to come but will he be worth the massive salary he is going to get when he is 37? That would be the fifth year of his contract and he is probably looking for at least six years. 

Edwin Jackson

Jackson is another name that has been associated with the Marlins and the right-hander joins Buehrle near the top of the list of available starting pitchers. Just 28-years-old, Jackson possesses a mid-nineties fastball and solid secondary pitches. He has long been considered a promising pitcher and continues to draw interest from teams. However, Jackson has not stuck around a team for long, playing for six teams since breaking into the Majors in 2003. So despite all his upside, no team has been willing to stick with him for a long time. Also, Jackson is 60-60 with a 4.46 ERA over his career. Not bad but not something to be overly excited about. Signing Jackson could be an overpay for a middle of the rotation starter.

C.J. Wilson

Wilson entered free agency as the top starter available but his poor showing in the postseason could have soured some potential suitors on him. The left-hander went 0-3 while allowing 18 earned runs over 28 innings this October. Despite his rough postseason, Wilson has been good in his two years as a starter. He was an All-Star in 2011 but he will be 31 when the season starts and is looking for a five-year deal worth around $80 million. That is a lot of money and years to commit to someone who is not exactly an ace. Wilson is probably best suited as a third starter but was the Rangers ace by default in 2011. Paying him like a top of the rotation arm is probably not a good idea. The Marlins might be better off investing their money elsewhere.

Prince Fielder

Fielder is the second-best free agent available and some might favor him over Pujols because he is four years younger. But Fielder has his share of issues that should be concerns to anyone looking to sign him. There is no question that Fielder can hit. He has hit 116 HR over the past three years and driven in over 100 runs in four of the last five. He is a career .282 hitter and has posted an OBP over .400 in each of the last three seasons. But Fielder is in terrible shape. He is listed at 5-foot-11 and 275 lbs. Having seen him up close many times, I'd say it's closer to 5'10" and 300 lbs. That is a concern for any team looking to sign him to a lucrative, long-term deal. Also, he is not exactly the best defender but that concern is minor because you are paying him to hit.

Yoenis Cespedes

Cespedes is a major wild card in free agency this year. The 26-year-old is supposed to a be five-tool prospect that is big league ready right now. The Marlins are rumored to be the favorite to land Cespedes. He is expected to get a contract worth about $30 million which would not appear to be a terrible investment on the surface. If Cespedes is as good as advertised, he could be in the Opening Day lineup when the Marlins open their new ballpark. However, it is hard to know exactly how these international prospects will do when they come to the United States.  For every successful defector there are a handful that have been total busts. It is not limited to Cuban players as several Asian imports fall into this category as well. Ultimately, this is a matter of risk vs. reward. If Cespedes lives up the the hype, the Marlins will have one of the top outfields in the Majors. If he flops, they will have thrown away $30 million.

Aramis Ramirez

Ramirez is the top free agent third baseman and the Marlins have a glaring need at third base. Seems like a match made in heaven, right? Not quite. Yes, Ramirez has had a very good career and is coming off a strong season but he is a 33-year-old that was not so great in 2010 and is looking for a multi-year deal at a fairly sizable annual salary. The Marlins might be better off putting Emilio Bonifacio at third or signing a lower profile player to compete for time at the position than investing a lot of money into an aging, declining player.

 - Closers: No picture for these guys but there are a host of big to fairly big names available to teams looking for someone to close out games. The Marlins happen to be one of those teams. They might think bringing back Juan Carlos "Don't call me Leo Nuñez" Oviedo is not worth what he could cost in arbitration and look elsewhere for a ninth inning arm. Jonathan Papelbon is available but he is going to cost a boatload of money and probably isn't worth it. Heath Bell is available but it will take at least $10 million a year to get him and he would prefer to stay in San Diego anyway. Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez is available and is an intriguing option at the right price but he is also not the same guy who set the single-season saves record a few years ago. Jonathan Broxton is out of shape and coming off of a terrible, injury-plagued season. Francisco Cordero is 36, out of shape and won't come cheap. Joe Nathan, Brad Lidge, Frank Francisco, Joel Zumaya and Jon Rauch are other potential options with closing experience but they all have their issues too. The Marlins will settle on someone to close games for them in 2012 but there aren't many overly attractive options.

America, meet Yoenis Cespedes

Cespedes passes the eye test

BY David Villavicencio

Yu Darvish is the hot international free agent on the market this winter but there is another talented player with a “Y” name that will garner a lot of interest.

Yoenis Cespedes is six feet and 215 pounds of impressive baseball talent. The 26-year-old defected from his native Cuba to the Dominican Republic and is expected to be granted free agency soon.

Cespedes recently set the single season home run record in Cuba and was the starting centerfielder for the Cuban team in the 2009 World Baseball Classic. The five-tool prospect shined in the WBC, batting .458 with a double, three triples, two home runs, five runs scored and five runs batted in over six games.

“El Talento” or “La Potencia”, as Cespedes is known in Cuba, is widely considered the best position player in his native land. He is being advised by Edgar Mercedes and is officially represented by Adam Katz.

Cespedes has big league power

Cespedes has a tryout on Friday in the Dominican Republic and is rumored to be looking for a contract worth $30 million once his hits the open market. There are rumors that the Yankees, Nationals, Marlins and Phillies are all interested.

Personally, I think he would be a great fit for the Marlins.  He would fill the void in centerfield and give them one of the best young outfield trios in the game.

Want to see what Cespedes is all about? Check out the scouting video Mercedes put together to showcase his skills. It is a little ridiculous and doesn't show as much baseball skill as you'd like but you should definitely watch it. I have to warn you though, there is foul language in some of the songs chosen for background music.
Yoenis Cespedes: The Showcase

Cardinals beat the odds to become champions

BY David Villavicencio 

Boy, was I wrong.

After Game 5, I wrote that the series was essentially over. The Rangers had a 3-2 lead heading into Game 6. The Cardinals would have to win two straight games to come away as champions and Texas had not lost consecutive games since August.

Texas seemed to have all the momentum and luck on their side but the Cardinals kept fighting. Their resilience paid off as the Cardinals’ improbable postseason run culminated in a 6-2 Game 7 win over the Rangers to give the club its 11^th championship in franchise history.

Last night’s game was the clincher but getting there seemed almost impossible.

The Cardinals and Rangers were tied at 4 heading to the seventh inning of Game 6. St. Louis had mustered just three hits to that point but still managed to stay in the game.

Then Texas got hot.

The Rangers opened the top of the seventh with back-to-back homers from Adrian Beltre and Nelson Cruz. Ultimately, Texas would score three runs in the seventh and the feeling everywhere was that the Rangers would win their first championship.

But the Cardinals had other plans.

Down to their final strike on two separate occasions in Game 6, the Cardinals delivered a key hit to even the score and stay alive.

”Sometimes when opportunity is in your presence, you certainly can’t let it get away because sometimes it takes a while before it comes back,” Rangers manager Ron Washington said. “If there’s one thing that happened in this World Series that I’ll look back on is being so close, just having one pitch to be made and one out to be gotten, and it could have been a different story.”

For as much as I tore into Cardinals manager Tony La Russa after Game 5, I have to give him credit for instilling this resilient attitude in his team.

”It was overwhelming,” La Russa said. “We were on the edge game after game after game. You might lose one, but as it got closer, elimination games, the character on this club is off the charts. And we are more talented I think than some people realize, especially as we got healthy. But you play with that urgency, it’s a little scary at times and it takes a lot out of you, but it’s really fun to compete that way.”

Plenty of clubs would have given up after making three errors and putting themselves in a hole but the Cardinals persevered and it paid off. World Series MVP David Freese clubbed an 11^th inning walk off homer to even the series at 3 and force a decisive Game 7.

Freese's bat was too much for Texas

The 28-year-old St. Louis native was the Cardinals postseason hero. Freese set a record with 21 RBI in a single postseason. His two-strike, two-run triple in the ninth inning of Game 6 gave the Cardinals life. His solo homer to lead off the 11^th might have been the dagger that killed the Rangers.

”We all know we lost the Series yesterday,” Beltre said of Game 6. “We shouldn’t have let it slip away. We came back today to try to win it, but the momentum just took them and they won it. It’s not a nice feeling.”

Heading into last night’s game, the Cardinals seemed destined to win the series. Their Game 6 heroics made a Rangers victory in Game 7 almost unfathomable.

But Texas showed their ability to spoil the fairytale ending when their potent lineup scored two runs in the first inning before a stunned Busch Stadium crowd.

But that would be the last of the Rangers’ postseason magic as Freese’s hot bat came through again, tying the game with a two-run double in the first.

Carpenter has never lost a World Series start

Texas starter Matt Harrison would last just four innings, allowing three runs, while Cardinals starter Chris Carpenter settled in to pitch six strong innings and earn his ninth career postseason win.

La Russa, whose mismanagement of the bullpen in Game 5 made headlines, was masterful with his relievers on Friday. Arthur Rhodes, Octavio Dotel, Lance Lynn and Jason Motte were brilliant, holding the Rangers hitless over the final three innings to seal the win.

The Cardinals did what few thought they could.

The doubts started in Spring Training when Adam Wainwright tore up his elbow. The 2010 NL Cy Young runner-up would need Tommy John surgery and miss the entire season. Immediately, the Cardinals went from pre-season contender to afterthought.

“[Losing Wainwright] was a bad hit in Spring Training, and Tony was great,” Cardinals owner Bill Dewitt, Jr. said. “He said it’s not fair, but we’re not going to give up. This is a good club and we’ve got a shot. We’ll just do everything we can to win with what we’ve got.”

It got worse once the season started as All-Star closer Ryan Franklin imploded. The typically effective veteran reliever was blowing save after save. Franklin lost his closer role in April and eventually his job.

Then there was Albert Pujols’ uncharacteristic start to the season. The best player in the game hit just .245 in the first month of the season and dealt with injuries throughout the year. In June, he broke his left wrist on a tag play at first and appeared to be looking at a long stay on the Disabled List. But The Machine missed just two weeks when most players would have missed six.

Finally, the Cardinals faced an uphill battle to even make the postseason. On August 24, the team was 10½ games behind the NL Wild Card leading Braves. They had just been swept by the Dodgers and the season seemed lost but the Cardinals continued to fight and pulled off a minor miracle.

St. Louis went 23-9 the rest of the way and snuck into the postseason when the Braves completed their catastrophic collapse with a 4-3 loss to the Phillies on the final day of the regular season.

”We had a 5 percent chance (to reach the playoffs) with 35 games left in the season,” Pujols said. “We knew we had to play great. The first five months of the season were pretty bad. But it doesn’t matter. We’re world champions.”

The Cardinals would face a loaded Phillies team in the first round and were considered major underdogs. Philadelphia sported a starting rotation filled with aces while the Cardinals were running on fumes. But St. Louis silenced the doubters and advanced to the NLCS thanks to a complete game shutout from Carpenter in a decisive Game 5.

Next came the division rival Brewers. The two teams went 9-9 against one another in the regular season but a lot of experts had the Brew Crew ticketed for their first trip to the World Series since 1982. But Freese and his teammates mashed their way past the Brewers and into the World Series after six games.

The final obstacle was the Rangers. They matched up well with the Cardinals. Both teams had potent offenses and suspect pitching staffs. Many expected a series that tilted towards the offense but the teams combined to score just eight runs over the first two games.

Pujols hit just .240 for the series but came up big in Game 3

The slugfest finally came in Game 3 as Albert Pujols joined Babe Ruth and Reggie Jackson as the only players to homer three times in a World Series game. The Cardinals’s 16-7 victory gave them a 2-1 series lead and a chance to clinch their championship in Game 5.

But Rangers’ lefty Derek Holland made sure the Cards wouldn’t be able to celebrate their championship on his team’s field. The 25-year-old was nearly flawless as he silenced the Cardinals bats in Game 4. Holland allowed just two hits over 8 1/3 shutout innings to help Texas even the series at 2.

Then came the disaster that was Game 5. The Cardinals seemed to fall apart in what many had pegged as a crucial game. Mike Napoli, who was the Rangers’ version of Freese this postseason, delivered a game-winning two-run double in the eighth that put his team one victory away from their goal.

Rain forced Game 6 to be pushed back a day and the postponement benefitted the Cardinals a bit. Not only did it force the Rangers to keep their champagne on ice a little bit longer, but it slowed some of the momentum Texas had heading into Game 6 and made Carpenter available on three days rest should the Redbirds force a Game 7.

We all know what happened after that as Freese, Lance Berkman, Allen Craig, Pujols, Carpenter and the rest of the Cardinals did the improbable. They overcame their biggest obstacle, beating Texas on consecutive nights to become world champions.